Despite the hope-restoring nonfarm payrolls “recovery” and the over-hyped bounce in retail sales (ignoring the lack of ‘V’ in industrial production), in the last week 1.508million more Americans filed for unemployment benefits for the first time (notably worse than the 1.29mm expected).
That brings the thirteen-week total to 45.7million, dramatically more than at any period in American history. However, as [this chart] shows, the second derivative has turned the corner (even though the 1.508million rise this last week is still higher than any other week in history outside of the pandemic)
Continuing Claims did drop very modestly but hardly a signal that “re-opening” is occurring! And definitely not confirming the payrolls data.
Texas and Nevada showed the worst deterioration in the labor market as Florida and Oklahoma showed the best improvement in claims last week.