A month or so ago, the notion that President Trump would win reelection was dismissed as delusional. No longer.
A month or so ago, the notion that President Trump would win reelection was dismissed as delusional.
Reality resided in the data. Trump won seniors by 9 percentage points in the 2016 election; he trailed by from 5 to 9 percentage points in the July/early August 2020 survey research. Support for Trump among suburban women had collapsed. His approval and “reelect” numbers remained and still remain stubbornly low (low 40s). Two-thirds of the electorate think the country is on “the wrong track.” No way he wins, given all that.
And that’s right. There is no way Trump “wins.” He will lose the national popular vote by somewhere between 5 million and 7 million votes. His reelection campaign hasn’t just given up on trying to win the popular vote; they never thought it was possible in the first place.