JPMorgan Chase & Co. informed investors on Monday that they should prepare for rising odds that President Donald Trump could win reelection in 2020.
Company strategist Marko Kolanovic indicated that although most investors were preparing for a Joe Biden win, they should be aware of the growing trends in Trump’s favor. Biden still leads Trump by a slim margin in many polls, but Kolanovic warned that poll bias could miss a five to ten point unseen gap for Trump.
“Betting odds that earlier had Trump well behind challenger Joe Biden are now nearly even – largely due to the impact on public opinion of violence around protests, as well as potential bias in polls,” Kolanovic wrote according to Bloomberg News.
He noted that shifting public opinion against the ongoing riots in America’s major cities could help Trump as well as an improvement in coronavirus numbers.
A report by JPMorgan finds that COVID-19 infection rates have declined, not increased, in states that have reopened. The eye-opening study from the investment banking institution was shared by CNBC financial anchor Carl Quintanilla in a series of tweets.
Research by JPMorgan shows that the coronavirus infection rates of states that have ended their lockdowns have declined, “even after allowing for an appropriate measurement lag.” The incubation period for coronavirus has a median time of four to five days, and as long as 14 days, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
“JPMorgan has a devastating piece arguing that infection rates have declined — not increased — in states where lockdowns have ended, ‘even after allowing for an appropriate measurement lag,'” Quintanilla wrote of the report by Marko Kolanovic, the Global Head of Macro Quantitative and Derivatives Strategy team at JPMorgan.